The grim arithmetic: IDF data reveals 377,000 Palestinians unaccounted for
A recent report by Yaakov Garb of the Harvard Dataverse presents an atrocious, data-driven analysis of the new “aid distribution” compounds in Gaza1. Through meticulous spatial mapping, the report argues these facilities are not the humanitarian breakthrough they are claimed to be, but rather instruments of military strategy that defy international law. While the legal violations are stark, a deeper look at the population figures cited within the report reveals a demographic horror story that has, until now, remained buried in the rubble: a population gap of nearly 400,000 people.
These two themes — the perversion of aid and the decimation of a population — are inextricably linked. They paint a picture not of a relief effort, but of a strategy that advances military objectives while creating a façade of humanitarianism to placate international observers3.
IHL is not a set of polite suggestions; it is a body of binding obligations. As the occupying power, Israel has a duty under the 4th Geneva convention to ensure and facilitate the provision of food and medical supplies to the civilian population. The system described in the Garb report makes a mockery of this duty.
Instead of facilitating the work of experienced, neutral humanitarian agencies, Israel has crippled them in favor of a securitized alternative. This new model presents several grave violations:
This entire setup is described as the “inverse of well accepted and tested principles of food distribution”. It is a legal and moral charade, using the specter of aid to advance tactical goals.
As damning as the legal analysis is, the population data contained within the report’s maps points to a far greater catastrophe. Before the conflict, the population of the Gaza Strip was approximately 2.227 million. The Garb report includes maps displaying IDF estimates for the populations remaining in what are considered the three primary enclaves.
The numbers are as follows:
The total of these official estimates is 1.85 million people.
Simple arithmetic reveals a horrifying gap: 2.227 million minus 1.85 million leaves 377,000 people unaccounted for.
This number is more than six times the casualty figures commonly discussed in media reports. While some of these individuals may be displaced in the rubble-strewn landscapes outside the main enclaves, the sheer scale of this discrepancy, derived from the occupying power’s own population assessments, is staggering. It suggests a demographic catastrophe — whether from direct casualties, starvation, or disease — far exceeding what the world has been led to believe.
The aid compounds and the missing population are two sides of the same coin. The compounds are positioned and designed in a way that makes them inaccessible to the majority of the population, particularly the one million people in Gaza City who are cut off by the Netzarim corridor. The system is not designed to feed the 1.85 million who can be counted, let alone address the fate of the 377,000 who cannot.
The international community must look beyond the veneer of these aid compounds and confront the grim reality they represent. We must condemn a system that uses the promise of food to force a desperate population through militarized chokepoints. But more urgently, we must demand an answer to the most pressing question this data raises:
Where are the missing 377000 Palestinians?
Source: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/QB75LB